Labour Forecasting Tool

The ECITB’s Labour Forecasting Tool (LFT) provides insights into workforce numbers across regions and sectors up to 2035, predicting trends and potential future demand for workers.

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Labour Forecasting Tool Overview

Welcome to the Labour Forecasting Tool (LFT) – a resource for exploring workforce trends.

This informative resource is designed to provide insights into workforce numbers across regions and sectors up to 2035.

The tool (at the bottom of this page) offers a glimpse into workforce dynamics and potential future demand.

The LFT has been developed by the ECITB and Whole Life Consultants with the support of an industry technical reference group comprising key industry stakeholders.

As we move forward, your feedback and additional data through our ongoing work will contribute to its refinement and further utility in addressing workforce planning challenges within the sector.

LFT limitations and assumptions

The LFT is based on the best data available to the ECITB. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the tool relies on certain assumptions to compensate for data gaps.

These assumptions may introduce variability into the forecasts. We are actively working to fill these gaps by continuously refreshing and seeking to obtain missing data, including data on shutdowns.

The projected demand is mainly driven by new build and decommissioning projects, and to a lesser extent by the demand resulting from operation and maintenance works.

The predictions are created using findings from the ECITB Workforce Census and publicly stated timescales on active and future ECI projects.

Find out more about the ECITB Workforce Census

Sectors covered by the LFT

Chemicals

Oil & gas

Food and drink processing

Water treatment

Conventional power generation

Nuclear

Renewables

Offshore wind

Hydrogen

Carbon capture

Offshore wind has been considered separately from the renewables category due to the size of the sector and to reflect the fact that the underlying data for the former is gathered from a different mix of internal and external sources.

Key insights from the Labour Forecasting Tool based on current forecasts

The LFT contains forecast demand data by region, sector and occupational group.

The geographic data is based on the location of the project installation, rather than the location of the entire workforce. Therefore, the demand in a specific region does not necessarily imply that all the demand will occur in the region.

For example, 1,000 workers may be needed for a project in Wales, but part of the office-based workforce may be employed elsewhere. In this case, the LFT links the 1,000 workers to Wales.

Demand within the engineering construction industry could peak in 2030.
Around 40,000 additional workers could be needed on top of the existing supply of 114,000, taking into account retirements.
This could represent a 19% increase in demand between 2025 and 2030.
Should labour demand be met each year, 2026 will be a pivotal year, with nearly 4,400 additional workers potentially needed to meet demand.
Subject to final investment decisions (FIDs) and legal support, 23% of these workers could be required to work on carbon capture projects.
Failure to meet demand in 2026 could lead to delays and could shift the pressure to subsequent years. This could ultimately push the peak back, which in turn would have an impact on the delivery of projects which underpin the UK’s net zero commitments.

Analyse the Labour Forecasting Tool

Review the labour demand, gap analysis, data on occupations and select different scenarios by clicking the links below:

Get in touch

For more information on the tool and for enquiries regarding more specific analyses, please get in touch with the ECITB research team.

We are also keen to get your feedback on the Labour Forecasting Tool.

If you are happy for us to contact you to get your views on the tool or to provide updates on future development please email:

research@ecitb.org.uk.

The Engineering Construction Industry Will Need Thousands Of Extra Skilled Workers By 2030

Engineering construction industry facing peak demand for workers in 2030The ECITB's updated Labour Forecasting Tool (LFT) reveals that peak demand for workers in the engineering construction industry has shifted to 2030 due to delays in some projects that now coincide with other planned activity.

ResearchThe ECITB produces vital research and labour market intelligence, providing insights into the engineering construction workforce and its skills needs.

ECITB Workforce CensusThe ECITB Workforce Census helps us build a richer picture of the industry to support stakeholders better understand the challenges ahead, define priorities and inform decision-making.

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